Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 46.44%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 26.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.64%), while for an Atletico Mineiro win it was 0-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
-0.1) 
0.16) 
