Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 44.22%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 26.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.09%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.12%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Botafogo
44.22% ( 0.47)	29.04% ( 0.47)	26.74% ( -0.94)

Both teams to score 42.1% (

-1.73)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.07% (

-1.88)

63.93% (

1.88)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.86% (

-1.36)

83.14% (

1.36)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.11% (

-0.66)

28.89% (

0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.23% (

-0.82)

64.77% (

0.82)

Botafogo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.2% (

-1.87)

40.8% (

1.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.63% (

-1.72)

77.37% (

1.71)

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 44.21%

Botafogo 26.73%

Draw 29.04%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Botafogo
1-0 @ 14.63% ( 0.73) 2-0 @ 9.09% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.5% Total : 44.21%	1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.78% ( 0.79) 2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.26) Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.04%	0-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.3) 0-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.19) 0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.14) Other @ 1.29% Total : 26.73%