SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria | Draw | Bahia |
41.81% ( -0.29) | 25.63% ( 0.1) | 32.56% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 54.73% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.8% ( -0.36) | 49.2% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.73% ( -0.32) | 71.26% ( 0.33) |
| Vitoria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.63% ( -0.3) | 23.36% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.67% ( -0.44) | 57.33% ( 0.44) |
| Bahia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.42% ( -0.05) | 28.58% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.63% ( -0.07) | 64.37% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria | Draw | Bahia |
| 1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.04% Total : 41.81% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.62% | 0-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1% Other @ 2.67% Total : 32.56% |
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