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Bundesliga | Gameweek 14
Nov 9, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
FL

RB Leipzig
3 - 1
Freiburg

Simakan (54'), Nkunku (56'), Forsberg (78' pen.)
Nkunku (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kubler (66')
Doan (41'), Woo-yeong (43'), Sildillia (46'), Sallai (88')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-3 RB Leipzig
Saturday, November 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 FC Koln
Sunday, November 6 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Freiburg

This should be a highly entertaining encounter between two in-form teams, but Leipzig appear to be a class above the majority of teams in the division at present and should be able to claim a huge win. Nkunku continues to be one of the Bundesliga's most impressive players and he will be keen to remain at the top of the Bundesliga goalscoring charts, although Gregoritsch will fancy his chances of bagging once again, too. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 59.75%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawFreiburg
59.75% (1.664 1.66) 21.36% (-0.513 -0.51) 18.88% (-1.155 -1.16)
Both teams to score 55.2% (-0.272 -0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.84% (0.603 0.6)42.16% (-0.606 -0.61)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.43% (0.602 0.6)64.56% (-0.605 -0.61)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.27% (0.712 0.71)13.73% (-0.716 -0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.01% (1.401 1.4)40.99% (-1.407 -1.41)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.99% (-0.85299999999999 -0.85)36.01% (0.85 0.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.21% (-0.879 -0.88)72.79% (0.874 0.87)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 59.75%
    Freiburg 18.88%
    Draw 21.35%
RB LeipzigDrawFreiburg
2-1 @ 9.96% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 9.82% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.75% (0.239 0.24)
3-1 @ 6.59% (0.18 0.18)
3-0 @ 6.45% (0.32 0.32)
3-2 @ 3.37% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.27% (0.171 0.17)
4-0 @ 3.2% (0.237 0.24)
4-2 @ 1.67% (0.05 0.05)
5-1 @ 1.3% (0.099 0.1)
5-0 @ 1.27% (0.124 0.12)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 59.75%
1-1 @ 10.02% (-0.25 -0.25)
2-2 @ 5.08% (-0.109 -0.11)
0-0 @ 4.94% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21.35%
1-2 @ 5.12% (-0.248 -0.25)
0-1 @ 5.05% (-0.26 -0.26)
0-2 @ 2.58% (-0.195 -0.2)
1-3 @ 1.74% (-0.127 -0.13)
2-3 @ 1.73% (-0.078 -0.08)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 18.88%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-3 RB Leipzig
Saturday, November 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Shakhtar 0-4 RB Leipzig
Wednesday, November 2 at 5.45pm in Champions League
Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-0 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, October 29 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 3-2 Real Madrid
Tuesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Augsburg 3-3 RB Leipzig
Saturday, October 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 4-0 Hamburger SV
Tuesday, October 18 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 FC Koln
Sunday, November 6 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Qarabag 1-1 Freiburg
Thursday, November 3 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Schalke 0-2 Freiburg
Sunday, October 30 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 1-1 Olympiacos
Thursday, October 27 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 Werder Bremen
Saturday, October 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 2-1 St Pauli
Wednesday, October 19 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal


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