Bremen seem like a much more settled unit than Mainz, who may be struggling with the unavailability of a few key players.
In the shape of their front two, the hosts have more firepower than the majority of teams in the division on current form, and we can see them ending Saturday in second position by gaining a win.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 54.2%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 23.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
-0.33) 
0.14) 
