SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 37% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
38.56% ( 0.03) | 24.44% ( 0.03) | 37% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 59.82% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57% ( -0.15) | 43% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.6% ( -0.15) | 65.4% ( 0.14) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.74% ( -0.05) | 22.26% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.3% ( -0.07) | 55.7% ( 0.07) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.94% ( -0.1) | 23.05% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.11% ( -0.15) | 56.88% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.26% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.42% Total : 38.56% | 1-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.43% | 1-2 @ 8.3% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.52% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.06% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.24% Total : 37% |
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