SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 34.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.74%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sturm Graz | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
34.65% ( -0.16) | 24.14% ( 0.01) | 41.21% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 60.57% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.12% ( -0.06) | 41.88% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.72% ( -0.06) | 64.28% ( 0.06) |
| Sturm Graz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.19% ( -0.11) | 23.81% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.02% ( -0.16) | 57.98% ( 0.16) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.5% ( 0.04) | 20.5% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.01% ( 0.07) | 52.99% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sturm Graz | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 7.97% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.97% Total : 34.65% | 1-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.14% | 1-2 @ 8.8% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.13% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.65% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.33% 0-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.84% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.89% Total : 41.21% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
