We are expecting an entertaining game here, as two talented sides battle it out in an all-or-nothing clash.
The visitors will be dangerous with the likes of Moussa Diaby on the break, but we think the quality of Simeone's side should be enough to seal a crucial win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.07) 
