Union Berlin are in need of a big result to act as a springboard amid their disappointing form, but we are finding it very difficult to back them at the moment. Braga are full of quality in the final third of the field, and we are expecting the Portuguese side to claim all three points on Tuesday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 46.01%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-0 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
0.02) 
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