We expect a very cagey affair at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei, with both teams knowing the significance of this fixture in terms of progressing to the knockout stages.
Whichever team scores first will feel confident of getting the result that they need, and we are backing Union Berlin to do so and hold on for a vital victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 46.53%. A win for Braga had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union Berlin in this match.
0.07) 
-0.08) 
