SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 40.2%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wuhan Three Towns would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
34.21% ( -0.05) | 25.6% ( -0.01) | 40.2% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 55.31% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.34% ( 0.03) | 48.66% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.22% ( 0.03) | 70.77% ( -0.03) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.72% ( -0.01) | 27.28% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.28% ( -0.02) | 62.72% ( 0.02) |
| Wuhan Three Towns Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.06% ( 0.04) | 23.94% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.84% ( 0.06) | 58.16% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
| 1-0 @ 8.48% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 34.21% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 9.34% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.67% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.67% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.14% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 40.2% |
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