In spite of their well-documented shortcomings, Barcelona remain as sharp as a tack in the final third, scoring in each of their last 15 contests and netting at least two goals in seven of their last eight battles.
La Blaugrana will certainly not have it all their own way at San Mames, where familiar opponents Athletic have dispatched teams for fun in recent weeks, but the Lions often lose their attacking bite when faced with a wall of Barca shirts and should fall just short as Xavi's side deny them a fifth successive semi-final appearance.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.54%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%).
-0.2) 
0.32) 
