Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 60.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 16.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
-0.69) 
0.18) 
