Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 36.19%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (11.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
-0.81) 
0.32) 
