Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 60.65%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Jong PSV had a probability of 17.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a Jong PSV win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.
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