Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 54.78%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 23.92% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.41%) and 1-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (6.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
0.14) 
-0.01) 
