Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 36.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.95%) and 0-2 (5.17%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for De Graafschap in this match.
1.27) 
-1.31) 
