Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 43.01%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.05) 
