Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
