Emmen are playing with enough belief that they will fancy their chances of upsetting Ajax on away territory. Nevertheless, this is a different level of step up, and it would come as a surprise if Ajax do not canter to victory, regardless of how Feyenoord fare earlier in the day.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 80.76%. A draw had a probability of 12% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 7.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 3-1 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.35%), while for a Emmen win it was 1-2 (2.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
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