SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Heerenveen | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | SBV Excelsior | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | FC Twente | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | SBV Excelsior | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Groningen | 4 | -4 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 61.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 17.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
61.39% ( 0.07) | 20.8% ( 0) | 17.81% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 55.04% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.61% ( -0.11) | 41.39% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.22% ( -0.12) | 63.78% ( 0.12) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87% ( -0.01) | 13% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.48% ( -0.03) | 39.52% ( 0.03) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.26% ( -0.15) | 36.74% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.48% ( -0.15) | 73.53% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 9.95% 2-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.77% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.45% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.41% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.41% ( 0)Other @ 3.38% Total : 61.39% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.8% | 1-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.78% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.46% Total : 17.81% |
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