Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 40.4%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 30.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-0 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
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