So far this season, Astana have failed to score at the same rate as last term, when they were crowned Kazakh champions. Despite finding the net twice on home soil, Thursday's visitors were shut out twice by Dinamo Zagreb, and if a talented Ludogorets side can keep the back door shut they are sure to overturn their deficit.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 69.97%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Astana had a probability of 11.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.51%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.
0.07) 
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