Sweating over the fitness of Akins and reeling from their first defeat of the season, the stage appears set for a jelly-legged Mansfield to suffer a second cup exit in a matter of days.
Despite their unenviable injury list, Wrexham have been a tough nut to crack on enemy territory in recent weeks, and we believe that Parkinson's men have what it takes to shade a tight battle to book their place in round two.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 53.6%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 23.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 0-1 (6.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
0.32) 
-0.05) 
