Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 37.61%. A win for Iran had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.5%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Iran win was 1-0 (12.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
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