SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritania win with a probability of 44.67%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 25.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mauritania win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.39%) and 2-1 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Madagascar win it was 0-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mauritania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mauritania | Draw | Madagascar |
44.67% ( -0.09) | 29.57% ( 0.02) | 25.76% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 40.23% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.07% ( -0) | 65.94% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.46% ( -0) | 84.54% ( 0.01) |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.36% ( -0.05) | 29.64% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.32% ( -0.06) | 65.68% ( 0.06) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.17% ( 0.06) | 42.83% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.86% ( 0.05) | 79.15% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mauritania | Draw | Madagascar |
| 1-0 @ 15.43% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.39% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.23% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.37% 4-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 1.35% Total : 44.66% | 1-1 @ 13.09% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.69% 2-2 @ 3.37% ( 0)Other @ 0.41% Total : 29.57% | 0-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 1.07% Total : 25.76% |
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