SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 55.12%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Ghana had a probability of 18.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for a Ghana win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nigeria | Draw | Ghana |
55.12% ( -0.01) | 26.01% ( 0.03) | 18.87% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 41.67% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.81% ( -0.1) | 60.19% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.62% ( -0.08) | 80.38% ( 0.08) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78% ( -0.04) | 22% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.68% ( -0.07) | 55.31% ( 0.07) |
| Ghana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.42% ( -0.08) | 46.58% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.83% ( -0.06) | 82.16% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nigeria | Draw | Ghana |
| 1-0 @ 15.51% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 11.74% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.98% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.93% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.24% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 55.11% | 1-1 @ 11.85% 0-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.47% Total : 25.99% | 0-1 @ 7.83% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 18.87% |
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