San Marino are often well organised defensively but find goals extremely hard to come by, so we can envisage them avoiding defeat for only the 10th time in their history.
St Lucia may be rusty having only played two fixtures in the last three years, so they could settle for a draw ahead of targeting a win against the same opponents on Sunday.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 20.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.26) 
0.05) 
