SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Uruguay | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Russia | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Egypt | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 50.49%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 26.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Ecuador |
50.49% ( 0.3) | 22.89% ( 0.03) | 26.62% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 60.4% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.89% ( -0.42) | 40.1% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.53% ( -0.44) | 62.47% ( 0.44) |
| Saudi Arabia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.94% ( -0.05) | 16.06% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.57% ( -0.09) | 45.43% ( 0.09) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.96% ( -0.46) | 28.04% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.31% ( -0.59) | 63.69% ( 0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Ecuador |
| 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.67% 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 3.57% Total : 50.49% | 1-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.89% | 1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.65% Total : 26.62% |
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