Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Gamba Osaka had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Gamba Osaka win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
-0.32) 
0.35) 
