USV Hercules
3 - 2
Ajax

Pieters (16', 66'), Grotenbreg (90+3')
Fonville (42'), van Hussen (44')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Brobbey (83'), Akpom (89')
Avila (44'), Brobbey (75'), Gaaei (77')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Match Report

The Match

Match Report

Fourth-tier amateur side USV Hercules pull off one of the greatest shocks in Dutch football history to dump 20-time winners Ajax out of the KNVB Beker with a 3-2 victory.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 86.2%. A draw had a probability of 8.8% and a win for USV Hercules had a probability of 5.04%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-3 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (8.05%) and 1-3 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.62%), while for a USV Hercules win it was 2-1 (1.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
USV Hercules	Draw	Ajax
5.04%	8.76%	86.2%

Both teams to score 56.22%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

82.06%

17.94%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

64.9%

35.1%

USV Hercules Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.82%

42.17%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.41%

78.59%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.23%

2.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

87.29%

12.71%

Score Analysis

USV Hercules 5.04%

Ajax 86.2%

Draw 8.76%

USV Hercules	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 1.56% 1-0 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.47% Total : 5.04%	1-1 @ 3.62% 2-2 @ 2.8% 0-0 @ 1.17% 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.21% Total : 8.76%	0-3 @ 8.98% 0-4 @ 8.05% 1-3 @ 7.76% 0-2 @ 7.52% 1-4 @ 6.95% 1-2 @ 6.49% 0-5 @ 5.77% 1-5 @ 4.99% 0-1 @ 4.19% 0-6 @ 3.45% 2-3 @ 3.35% 2-4 @ 3% 1-6 @ 2.98% 2-5 @ 2.15% 0-7 @ 1.77% 1-7 @ 1.53% 2-6 @ 1.29% Other @ 6% Total : 86.2%