A 1-1 draw was played out between these two teams in the reverse fixture in Greece two months ago, and another closely-fought contest could be on the cards on Thursday.
However, Ajax have put together a strong run of form in recent weeks and we believe that the rejuvenated hosts will do enough to claim a narrow victory over AEK Athens to secure third place in Group B.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 49.66%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.33%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
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