SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 13 | Derby County | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Exeter City | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Wycombe Wanderers | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Barnsley | 8 | 1 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.28%. A win for Wycombe Wanderers had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Wycombe Wanderers win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Wycombe Wanderers |
42.28% ( 1.91) | 25.73% ( 0.36) | 31.99% ( -2.26) |
| Both teams to score 54.21% ( -1.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.21% ( -2.13) | 49.79% ( 2.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.21% ( -1.93) | 71.79% ( 1.94) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.61% ( 0.02) | 23.39% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.63% ( 0.02) | 57.37% ( -0.01) |
| Wycombe Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.76% ( -2.46) | 29.24% ( 2.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.81% ( -3.14) | 65.19% ( 3.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Wycombe Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.84) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.61)3-1 @ 4.3% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.03% Total : 42.28% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.57)2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0.28)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 8.41% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( -0.39)0-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.39)2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.28)0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.27)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.2)Other @ 2.52% Total : 31.99% |
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