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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 38.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.1%) and 3-1 (4.79%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Notts County |
39.2% ( 0.87) | 22.09% ( -0.21) | 38.7% ( -0.66) |
| Both teams to score 69.03% ( 0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.9% ( 1.11) | 31.09% ( -1.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.5% ( 1.31) | 52.49% ( -1.31) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.18% ( 0.84) | 16.81% ( -0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.21% ( 1.49) | 46.78% ( -1.49) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.98% ( 0.2) | 17.01% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.84% ( 0.35) | 47.15% ( -0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Notts County |
| 2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 4.55% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.12)4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.06)4-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.42% Total : 39.2% | 1-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.18)3-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.56% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 8% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.28)1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 4.21% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.04)3-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.34% Total : 38.7% |
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