Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 42.41%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.6%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.12) 
