Chaves have endured a horror start to the new campaign and will head into the weekend looking to pick up a morale-boosting result. However, the Flavienses take on an inexperienced Estrela side who have struggled for results on the road and we fancy them snapping their losing streak this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 46.59%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
-0.1) 
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