Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 64.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 14.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
