SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.72%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sturm Graz |
54.74% ( -0.06) | 20.1% ( 0.01) | 25.16% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 69.32% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.14% ( 0.03) | 27.85% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.44% ( 0.03) | 48.56% ( -0.03) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.45% ( -0.01) | 10.54% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.73% ( -0.02) | 34.26% ( 0.01) |
| Sturm Graz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.49% ( 0.05) | 22.5% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.93% ( 0.08) | 56.06% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sturm Graz |
| 2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 5.34% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 5.01% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.78% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.82% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.7% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.27% 5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 3.59% Total : 54.74% | 1-1 @ 7.96% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.37% ( -0)Other @ 0.6% Total : 20.1% | 1-2 @ 5.94% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.54% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.64% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.31% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.1% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 2.19% Total : 25.16% |
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