Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 47.16%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 25.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.72%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
0.31) 
-0.43) 
