Having a full week to rest should give Lens an advantage over Strasbourg, who featured in a midweek affair in the last 16 of the Coupe de France.
Given how well-organised Lens have been and Le Racing's frequent habit of giving goals away, we expect a narrow but comfortable triumph for Les Sang et Or.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Strasbourg had a probability of 30.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Strasbourg win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
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