A closely-fought contest between two in-form teams could be on the cards on Sunday, but considering that Lille are set to recall a few first-team regulars who were rested in midweek, we expect Fonceca's men to have few issues coming away with all three points on home soil. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 60.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 17.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Lille	Draw	Metz
60.92% ( -0.66)	21.16% ( 0.07)	17.92% ( 0.58)

Both teams to score 54.04% (

0.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.18% (

0.64)

42.82% (

-0.64)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.78% (

0.63)

65.22% (

-0.63)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.41% (

0.01)

13.59% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.29% (

0.01)

40.7% (

-0.02)

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.53% (

1.05)

37.46% (

-1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.75% (

1.02)

74.24% (

-1.02)

Score Analysis

Lille 60.92%

Metz 17.92%

Draw 21.16%

Lille	Draw	Metz
1-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 3.31% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0) Other @ 3.08% Total : 60.92%	1-1 @ 9.98% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.16%	0-1 @ 5% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.37% Total : 17.92%