These are two of the most lethal MLS sides in the attacking third, and although Cincy have a better record against the Union this year, we are giving the home team an edge because of how much sharper they are defensively, along with their experience in these elimination games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 66.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 14.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-2 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
