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Major League Soccer
Oct 9, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Florida Citrus Bowl
CC

Orlando City
2 - 1
Columbus Crew

Urso (56'), Torres (84' pen.)
Araujo (58'), Smith (78'), Michel (84'), Urso (87'), Angulo (90'), Cartagena (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Etienne (38')
Santos (9'), Nagbe (73'), Degenek (83')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Inter Miami 4-1 Orlando City
Thursday, October 6 at 1am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Charlotte FC 2-2 Columbus Crew
Thursday, October 6 at 12am in Major League Soccer

We said: Orlando City 2-1 Columbus Crew

The Crew have an edge in terms of individual quality and match-winners, but they have had far too many defensive breakdowns this season at the most inopportune times, not the mention they have had a miserable campaign away from home, losing more road games than any side in MLS (10). If this match were in Columbus, we would be inclined to predict a victory for the Crew, however, the Lions have been much more disciplined and solid defensively at home, which we believe will frustrate the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 23.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Orlando City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Orlando City.

Result
Orlando CityDrawColumbus Crew
52.49% (0.065999999999995 0.07) 23.67% (-0.025000000000002 -0.03) 23.83% (-0.043000000000003 -0.04)
Both teams to score 54.81% (0.038999999999994 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.83% (0.070999999999998 0.07)46.17% (-0.071999999999996 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.53% (0.068000000000001 0.07)68.46% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)
Orlando City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.43% (0.052000000000007 0.05)17.56% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.88% (0.090000000000003 0.09)48.11% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)
Columbus Crew Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.49% (0.0049999999999955 0)33.51% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.85% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)70.14% (-0.0069999999999908 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Orlando City 52.49%
    Columbus Crew 23.83%
    Draw 23.67%
Orlando CityDrawColumbus Crew
1-0 @ 10.23% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.9% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 5.64% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.09% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.45% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.24% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.34% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.69%
Total : 52.49%
1-1 @ 11.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.89% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.13% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 23.67%
0-1 @ 6.43% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 6.12% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.52% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.94% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.28% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 23.83%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Inter Miami 4-1 Orlando City
Thursday, October 6 at 1am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 2-1 Orlando City
Sunday, October 2 at 6pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Orlando City 4-0 Toronto
Sunday, September 18 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Orlando City 0-1 Atlanta
Wednesday, September 14 at 11.55pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 5-1 Orlando City
Sunday, September 11 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Orlando City 3-2 Seattle
Thursday, September 1 at 2.22am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Charlotte FC 2-2 Columbus Crew
Thursday, October 6 at 12am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Columbus Crew 2-1 NY Red Bulls
Sunday, October 2 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Columbus Crew 1-1 Portland
Sunday, September 18 at 6pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Inter Miami 2-1 Columbus Crew
Wednesday, September 14 at 1am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Montreal 2-2 Columbus Crew
Saturday, September 10 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Columbus Crew 0-0 Chicago Fire
Saturday, September 3 at 10.30pm in Major League Soccer


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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