SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | New York City FC | 31 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 30 | -10 | 42 |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 5 | 41 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Chicago Fire | 31 | -9 | 35 |
| 7 | Toronto | 31 | -8 | 34 |
| 8 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -11 | 34 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 55.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 22.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Toronto win it was 1-2 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Orlando City | Draw | Toronto |
55.01% ( -1.81) | 22.66% ( 0.46) | 22.32% ( 1.34) |
| Both teams to score 56.25% ( 0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.63% ( -0.42) | 43.36% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.24% ( -0.42) | 65.76% ( 0.41) |
| Orlando City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.34% ( -0.74) | 15.66% ( 0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.31% ( -1.4) | 44.69% ( 1.4) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.69% ( 1.02) | 33.31% ( -1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.07% ( 1.11) | 69.92% ( -1.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orlando City | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 8.96% ( -0.31)3-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.34)3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.23)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.6% Total : 55.02% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.66% | 1-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.28) 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.26)0-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.31% Total : 22.32% |
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