SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 33.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Louis City | Draw | New York City FC |
39.21% ( -0.23) | 26.81% ( 0.2) | 33.97% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 51.27% ( -0.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.18% ( -0.82) | 53.81% ( 0.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.71% ( -0.69) | 75.28% ( 0.69) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.18% ( -0.51) | 26.81% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.89% ( -0.67) | 62.1% ( 0.67) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.05% ( -0.39) | 29.94% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.95% ( -0.47) | 66.05% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Louis City | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.13% Total : 39.2% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.81% | 0-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 7.68% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.35% 2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.37% Total : 33.97% |
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