Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aldershot Town win with a probability of 50.1%. A win for Eastleigh had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aldershot Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Eastleigh win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
-0.22) 
0.06) 
