Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 64.28%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for York City had a probability of 15.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a York City win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
-0.14) 
0.02) 
