Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for York City had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest York City win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rochdale would win this match.
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