Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 84.76%. A draw had a probability of 10.2% and a win for York City had a probability of 4.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 4-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.8%), while for a York City win it was 1-2 (1.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
-0.13) 
0.06) 
