SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 76.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 5.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-2 with a probability of 18.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (18.21%) and 0-3 (12.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.01%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 18.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lithuania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gibraltar | Draw | Lithuania |
5.99% ( -0.54) | 17.52% ( 0.43) | 76.49% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 27.74% ( -3.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.2% ( -3.27) | 56.8% ( 3.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.26% ( -2.69) | 77.73% ( 2.69) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 31.98% ( -3.53) | 68.02% ( 3.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 5.77% ( -1.46) | 94.23% ( 1.45) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.75% ( -0.94) | 13.25% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.97% ( -1.93) | 40.03% ( 1.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gibraltar | Draw | Lithuania |
| 1-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.25)Other @ 1.16% Total : 5.99% | 0-0 @ 9.01% ( 1.07) 1-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.31)Other @ 0.12% Total : 17.52% | 0-2 @ 18.4% ( 0.99) 0-1 @ 18.21% ( 1.58)0-3 @ 12.4% ( 0.24)1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.55)0-4 @ 6.27% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.56)0-5 @ 2.53% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.38)1-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.25)Other @ 2.47% Total : 76.47% |
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